DA from July 2016 set to increase by 6% or 7% for Pre Revised Pay (Pre-7th CPC Pay)

On the basis of All India Consumer Price Index for the period from July 2015 to April 2016 and assumed indices for May and Jun 2016, DA for Central Government Employees in Pre-revised pay (6th CPC) and DA from July after implementation of 7th Pay Commission have been estimated

DA from July 2016 set to increase by 6% or 7% on the basis of All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) with base year 2001=100, for Pre revised Pay (Pay prior implementation of 7th Pay Commission)

 DA from July 2016 – An analysis – Labour Bureau, Govt of India has released the Consumer Price Index (IW) for the month of April 2016.

Having actual All India Consumer price index for 10 months in hand, out of AICPI-IW needed for calculation of DA, an attempt has been made here to estimate the said DA from July 2016.

This DA estimation is based on Consumer Price Index (IW) with the base year 2001=100 which is being followed presently for calculation of Dearness Allowance applicable for Central Government Employees, Defence personnel and Pensioners.

7th Pay Commission has also recommended that the same consumer price Index could be retained for granting Dearness Allowance.

Here is the extract of analysis and recommendations of 7th Pay Commission relating to Dearness Allowance

“The VICPC had recommended that the National Statistical Commission may be asked to explore the possibility of a specific survey covering government employees exclusively, so as to construct a consumption basked representative of government employees and formulate a separate index. This has, however, not been done.

Keeping in mind that the present formulation of DA has worked well over the years, and there are no demands for its alteration, the Commission recommends continuance of the existing formula and methodology for calculating the Dearness Allowance.”

Hence, it is assumed that CPI-IW with the base year 2001=100 would be followed with effect from January 2016 on implementation of 7th Pay commission report as far as Dearness Allowance is concerned.

In that case, DA from July 2016 after implementation of 7th Pay Commission has to be calculated using the following DA Calculation Formula

[ (Average of Consumer Index for the period from July -2015 to Jun-16) – (Average All India Consumer Price Index for 2015) X 100] / Average All India Consumer Price Index for 2015

Based on the above formula, after merger of DA of 125% with Basic Pay, DA from January 2016 would be calculated as 0% and Likely DA from July 2016 after implementation of 7th Pay Commission will be 2% or 3%

DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay

CPI-IW from July 2015 to April 2016

Month	Actual AICPI-IW
July-2015	263
Aug-2015	264
Sep-2015	266
Oct-2015	269
Nov-2015	270
Dec-2015	269
Jan-2016	269
Feb-2016	267
Mar-2016	268
Apr-2016	271
May-2016	yet to be released
Jun-2016	yet to be released

Scenario 1: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be less than 6%

Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 working out to be less than 6% is very remote due to the fact that the index should be getting reduced by at least 4 points in any one of the coming two months from the previous month and further reduction of at least 3 points in the other month.

In other words index for May 2016 should be getting reduced by 4 points to 267 and also witness further reduction by 3 points to 264, for increase in DA from July 2016 less than 6%. If index for May 2016 registers not more than 3 point reduction then index for June 2016 has to reduce at least by 4 points in order get the less than 6% increase in DA from July 2016

Calculation of DA from July 2016 based on CPI(IW) from July 2015 to June 2016

DA from July 2016	=[(263+264+266+269 +270+269+269+267+ 268+271+267@+264@)- 115.76]X100/115.76
	=130% (5% increase in DA from July 2016)
@ Assumed CPI(IW) for May 2016 and June 2016

DA from July 2016	=[(263+264+266+269+ 270+269+269+267+ 268+271+268@+264@) -115.76]X100/115.76
	=130%-125% (5% increase in DA from July 2016)
@ Assumed CPI(IW) for May 2016 and June 2016

Scenario 2: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be 6%

Even if index gets lower by 3 points during both of these months compared to previous month, viz., May 2016 registers 3 point reduction from April and further three point reduction in June 2016 compared to May 2016, increase in DA from July 2016 will be 6%.

DA from July 2016	=[(263+264+266+269+ 270+269+269+267+ 268+271+268@+265@)-115.76] X100/115.76
	=131% -125% (6% increase in DA from July 2016)
@ Assumed CPI(IW) for May 2016 and June 2016

We are of the opinion that increase in DA from July 2016 registering at least 6% is quite possible as chances for CPI (IW) getting reduced to less than 265 from the present level 271 in two months is very remote.

Scenario 3: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be 7%

If CPI (IW) gets increased at least by 2 points in any one of the coming two months and by 1 point increase in the other month compared to previous month, then DA from July 2016 will be poised for an increase of 7%.

In other words, if consumer price index for May 2016 and June 2016 witnesses at least 2 point increase and further 1 point increase respectively or vice versa, increase in DA from July 2016 is calculated to be 7%

DA from July 2016	=[(263+264+266+269+ 270+269+269+267+ 268+271+273@+274@)-115.76] X100/115.76
	=132% -125% (7% increase in DA from July 2016)
@ Assumed CPI(IW) for May 2016 and June 2016

DA from July 2016	=[(263+264+266+269+ 270+269+269+267+ 268+271+272@+273@)-115.76] X100/115.76
	=132% -125% (7% increase in DA from July 2016)
@ Assumed CPI(IW) for May 2016 and June 2016

Considering the inflationary trend shown by 3 point increase in April 2016, this scenario may become a reality. In that case DA from July 2016 will be 7%

Scenario 4: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out more than 7%

In order to get an increase in DA from July 2016 more than 7%, CPI(IW) for both May 2016 and June 2016 should witness at least 7 point increase from the present level of 271. If any one of this month registers lesser increase than 7 points then the other month has to compensate the same by registering increase of index by more than 7 points.

It is apparent that possibility for such an increase in CPI(IW) is not at all Possible. Hence we can conclude that increase in DA from July 2016 may not be more than 7%

Source: gconncect.in

7th Pay Commission: Lower rank employees to get highest percentage salary hike

7th Pay Commission: Lower rank employees to get highest percentage salary hike

In a populist move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government is likely to pay highest percentage of salary hike to the lower rank government employees with the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission recommendations.

New Delhi, June 24: Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government is likely to pay highest percentage of salary hike to the lower rank government employees with the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission recommendations. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) has reportedly asked Cabinet Secretary Pradeep Kumar Sinha led Empowered Committee of Secretaries, that is examining the 7th Pay Commission recommendations, to increase the pay of lower grade employees.

The PMO told the Empowered Committee that the salaries of employees in the lower ranks should rise by the highest percentage, reported The Sen Times. The government decided to give highest percentage salary hike to bottom grades employees and maintain parity of incomes between mid-level tier officers and the bottom grade employees.

Notably, all pay commissions in the past had not only recommended highest percentage of salary hike for top central government officials but also considered the disparity ratio between its highest and lowest paid employees. The ration of highest and lowest paid employees was about 1:12 in 2006.

The 7th Pay Commission, headed by Justice A K Mathur, had originally proposed hike of 14.27 in basic pay, 23.55 per cent in salary, allowances and pensions. The Empowered Committee of Secretaries has reportedly recommended a whopping 30 per cent hike in government employees’s salary, making the minimum amount Rs 23,500 and the maximum to Rs 3,25,000.

The Empowered Committee of Secretaries will submit its final report later this month and the Cabinet will take final call on the 7th Pay Commission recommendations in July. 47 lakh central government employees and 52 lakh pensioners will be benefited from the recommendations of 7th Pay Commission.

Source : http://www.india.com/

PARLIAMENT MARCH & RALLY OF ABOUT 20000 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES – CONFEDERATION

PARLIAMENT MARCH & RALLY OF ABOUT 20000 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES – CONFEDERATION

MASSIVE PARLIAMENT MARCH & RALLY OF

ABOUT 20000 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES

INDEFINITE STRIKE FROM 11TH JULY 2016

33 LAKHS CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES WILL PARTICIPATE

A massive parliament march and rally of about 20000 Central Government Employees was held at Jantar Mantar, New Delhi on 24th June 2016. The rally was organized by National Joint Council of Action (NJCA) of Central Government Employees comprising Railways, Defence, Confederation and Postal organizations demanding modification in the recommendations of 7th Central Pay Commissions including minimum wage and fitment formula. Other demands are scrapping of New Contributory Pension Scheme, No FDI in Railways and Defence, Grant of Civil Servant status to Gramin Dak Sevaks, filling up of vacancies, enhancement of bonus ceiling, No outsourcing, downsizing, contractorisation and corporatisation etc.

The NJCA had already given strike notice to Government on 9th June 2016. The Modi Government is not ready for a negotiated settlement with the staff side. The rally called upon the entirely of Central Government employees to intensify the campaign and preparations and make the strike a total success.

The rally was presided by Shri. N. Raghavaiah (General Secretary, NFIR & Chairman NJCA), Coms. Shiv Gopal Mishra (General Secretary AIRF & Convenor NJCA), Sreekumar (Secretary General AIDEF) M. Krishnan (Secretary General, Confederation) R. N. Parashar (Secretary General, NFPE) Guman Singh (President, NFIR), Rakal Das Gupta (President, AIRF) K. K. N. Kutty (President, Confederation) B. C. Sharma (NFIR) S. K. Tyagi (AIRF), Mrs. Champa and Mrs. Gita Pandey addressed the rally

About 33 lakhs Central Government Employees will participate in the strike. 40 lakhs Central Government Pensioners have declared their solidarity with the strike. Central Trade Unions had also extended their full support. State Government Employees Federations have cautioned the Central Government that they will also be compelled to join the strike if Government refuse to settle the demands relating to 7th CPC recommendations as majority of the state Governments are implementing the Central pay parity to their employees also.

Source: Confederation